In this post i try to give three different scenarios, that could happen on the upcoming weekend.
First off the “bad” scenario: It gets delayed by one week.
Not mch to say here, the price would move down, newcomers might be gone again and whales and posw-veterans would just hold as they have through other delays and chaos. A good thing about the last three chaos months is, that the coin cannot really crush any further, since the people holding on to their posw since a few months have been through enough so that this would not lead to a major dump. It would take out some of the spin, instead of accumulating from 1400 onwards this week, a delay would presumably start again from 1100-1200 next week, but there are no indications that the old community members would not hold on to their posw, just because something did not get delivered on the first mentioned date. I myself think of poswallet.com as of a building site, i do not care so much for the dates anymore as long as the finished product is nice.
An delay would ennerve oldies and newcomers alike, but the oldies are used to so much chaos during the transition, that they would not throw themselves off a cliff because of that. Price would go back to around 1100-1200 and accumulatuion would start over again, with some new people lost. And it would be a rather stoney – it has been like that anyways – and even farther way. But since the community we chose and the world we live in are either almost stoic or moving extremly fast, the delay would not cost as much as a bad product.
Secondly a neutral scenario: Launched but buggy (it is a beta still)
We do not really expect a perfect product, but there are some things that are expected to work again. Firstly of course the staking. Addresses need to be creatable, some major pos coins in a starting position to be added and the ETH-Integration needs to be visible (even though ETH will become pos later). The exchange has to go on again (though i expect something more like the first bitb beta exchange wirthin poswallet1.0), and there is to be some marketing and support for the final transition. And there has to be some change to the gui. For neutral i would go with practical, but not too eyepleasing, which would accomply with poswallets design so far. If most of those are met, there will be a price surge, because posw got its use back, and there is enough to market about. The main discussion within the community would be around some bugs, and lots and lots of suggestions presumably. Counting on humans fantasies about getting rich quick, this could definitly lead to a surge like Aprils (~20.000 sat), because back than many people just chose to believe their own wildest fantasies, which the site itself did not back than.
So with a working site, some marketing and many bugs, there will be a movement up anyways, but how far and mainly fast, will be in the hands of the beta testers and marketers/fudders. One thing that will happen anyways is an increasing volume, which makes posw itself tastier for other exchanges, probably not trex and polo in the beginning, but there are many and every single one helps.
And finally: It is all we wanted
So there is a visible ETH-Integration, all reports and income statements are up to date, the exchange goes online with poswallet2.0 and there are not too many bugs. The conversation would shift from suggestions on slack within our own community to how great poswallet 2.0 is on bitcointalk/bitcoingarden/cryptochat/trollboxes within exchanges/facebook/vk/twitter/reddit/4chan…. So there would be the best kind of marketing – the online equivalent of oral propaganda, which still works the best. Pricewise this would lead to Aprilprices very soon, but would also lead to an enormous amount of fud for accumulation purposes. So the coin would be able to reach up to $1 in this scenario rather fast, but would crash to $0,5, go to $0,75 and so on. The final price will line along the useability, but since it is everything we wanted, they will add the big pos-players very soon and therfore posw will be exposed further, will be traded more, and will have a higher volume. This would lead to being too tasty for bigger exchanges – this time of course trex and polo – and than i am in Imaginationland.
I personally think it will be either delay (24%) or neutral (75%) with imaginationlad being the one percent. But Imaginationland is important to understand how some people invest. The whole April price-movements were not driven by posw useability but by the vision of how poswallet might be (aided by a far too ambitous roadmap), and of course people knowing of and holding onto posw are more cautious now than in April, but to be honest, not too many people were exposed to posw up until now anyways.
Delay would cost some capitalization for sure, the final product would be the one exposed to a broader public, and therfore it would be an annoyance but no biggie compared to the pivx delisting.
Neutral will strongly depend on the marketing efforts by poswallet itself, which are said to be a combined attack (reopening bct channel, “flooding” twitter and facebook, giving interviews to blogs, new roadmap, eth integration, ledger, coinpayments, the useability of posw as well as poswallet2.0, …). If this works out, the community will be joining in and spreading the word.
On a side note: the community saw an increasing amount of webprofessionals and even someone who knows his way through american financial laws joining slack and offering their help, which is a very good sign in itself as well as very useful when the exchange is down because of greedy bureaucrats. Another plus: almost no insults or irrational complaints have been written in the last few dayson slack, the morale of the community is obviously increasing and discussions can be held again without those “everything-is-awesome” vs “piece of shit wallet” comments destroying every suggestion/complaint without even thinking about them.